What is Closing Line Value?
Consistently beating the closing line is usually an indicator of a winning long-term bettor
Hello Sports Bettors! In this post, we'll explore effective strategies to enhance your sports betting, focusing on the concept of closing line value. Whether a seasoned sharp or a weekend bettor, this post aims to equip you with the insights to place smarter bets.
Understanding the Importance of Closing Line Value
The real measure of a good bet isn't solely determined by the final outcome of a game, but by the bet's intrinsic value at the time it was placed. This is where the concept of Closing Line Value (CLV) becomes crucial to your long term success.
CLV is essentially a measure of the odds you secured when placing your bet in comparison to the odds at which the market eventually closed. A successful bet is one where you managed to beat the closing line, getting better odds than those available at the close of betting. Conversely, if your bet was placed at odds that were poorer than the closing line, then that would suggest you had not read the market as accurately as you might have hoped.
Let's illustrate this with an example. Suppose you bet on the Giants as a 5-point favorite against the Eagles, but the line closes at Giants -3. Even if the Giants triumph by a wide margin, you technically lost to the closing line, as you accepted a price that overvalued the Giants.
The principle here is not about winning or losing individual bets, but about consistently finding better value than the closing line. This is the hallmark of a seasoned bettor, reflecting their ability to accurately interpret and anticipate the market dynamics.
So, if you beat the closing line repeatedly but lose those bets, are you a good bettor? Absolutely. Everyone goes through phases of good and bad fortune. However, consistently outsmarting the market is a skill that ensures long term +ev.
So how do you consistently get closing line value?
First, every sports bettor needs to have several sportsbooks to shop lines. While sportsbooks generally share a collective mindset, mirroring the shifts of the most influential ones, there are instances where these platforms may not update their line promptly, or they might tweak their line slightly due to risk management concerns. In such cases, bettors can seize easy value as the lines will eventually align with the trends established by market making books.
Another golden rule to note is that early birds often get the worms in the betting market. This is an area where casual bettors can gain an edge over high-stake bettors. While the latter must wait for the betting limits to rise before placing substantial bets, this restriction does not apply to most recreational bettors. By accurately forecasting the bets likely to be placed by influential players, they can place their bets ahead of the market shift, thereby avoiding the trap of "chasing steam," or following sharp plays once the optimal value has been squeezed out of a line.
It is much easier to get CLV when playing markets that see more line movement and less action. Smaller markets like betting props, WNBA, MMA, certain college basketball and college football games can be advantageous. The bigger the market the sharper the line. We all had that friend who was betting Korean baseball during covid. Maybe they were on to something?
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Disclaimer: None of the information provided in this post is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by the Game Theory Picks team. Game Theory Picks is intended for 21+. It’s important to gamble responsibly. If you think you have a problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER